This article is part of an ongoing, county by county overview of the Tri-County Area. This article covers seasonality and the local competitive effect on employment growth in Ingham County.

The most recent employment growth data for Ingham County shows that in the first quarter of 2026 employment decreased in both Goods Producing and Service Providing industries. The following figure compares actual Q1 2026 employment changes in Ingham County to what would have occurred had the county simply matched Michigan’s or the nation’s growth rates. Goods Producing employment fell by 725 jobs (4.5%), roughly 110 fewer jobs than Michigan’s decline would predict, though roughly 100 more than the national rate would predict. Service Providing employment fell by 1,393 jobs (1.5%), less than half of the decline implied by Michigan’s rate and well below the national rate.

 

While the figure above just presents a snapshot of one quarter, to get more of the whole picture of employment trends in Ingham County, we can look at the quarterly trends since 2015 illustrated in the chart below. Employment in Ingham County follows a relatively clear seasonal rhythm, especially in Goods Producing, where quarterly swings have generally been somewhat larger than Michigan’s.

In terms of Goods Producing industries, employment in Q4 and Q1 generally decreases, while Q2 and Q3 employment tends to increase to offset it. Q1 has declined in nine out of the last 10 years, averaging a 2.8% drop, and Q4 has declined in eight of 10. Q2, by contrast, has declined only once (in 2020) and has averaged a 2.4% gain, with Q3 rising in seven of 10 years. This sharper pattern may reflect weather-sensitive activity such as construction, which accounts for about one-third of Goods Producing jobs. Over the longer term, Goods Producing employment has trended up, increasing 12% between Q1 2015 and Q1 2026.

Service Providing industries follow a somewhat different rhythm than the Goods Producing industries. Employment has softened in Q1 in every one of the past 10 years (averaging a 1.3% decline) and in most Q3s (six of 10), before rebounding in Q2 (up in nine of the past 10 years) and especially Q4, which increased every year since 2015. Ingham County is home to Michigan State University and substantial health care, insurance, and retail employment. The university’s academic calendar, which drives student-oriented retail, dining, and housing activity, as well as holiday-season hiring, may help explain the summer declines and consistent Q4 gains.

           

Ingham County’s own Q2 2026 employment figures are not yet available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), but statewide data, which is reported more quickly through the BLS Current Employment Statistics, offers an early read. Michigan Goods Producing employment fell 5.9% in Q1 2026 and then rebounded 3.9% in Q2, while Service Providing employment fell 3.4% in Q1 before rising 2.7% in Q2. Given that Ingham County’s Q1 Service Providing decline was less than half the state’s and that its Goods Producing employment has rebounded in Q2 in nine of the past 10 years, it is plausible to predict that Ingham County followed a similar pattern: a Goods Producing rebound at least as strong as the state’s and recovery in the Service Providing sector.

The earliest signal for Q3 2026 comes from Michigan’s monthly data: statewide Goods Producing employment ticked up in July and August compared to the Q2 average, while Service Providing employment ticked down slightly in July and then up slightly in August. With only two months reported, this is too early to call a trend, though a July and August uptick in Goods Producing and softening of Service Providing would be consistent with Ingham County’s usual Q3 pattern. Taken together, the available evidence is consistent with Ingham County’s employment cycle remaining seasonal with a gradual overall increase, and the county’s Q1 2026 results relative to the state and nation, along with year-over-year growth, suggest its labor market is on solid footing, though confirmation will have to wait for county-level Q2 and Q3 2026 data to be released.