This article is part of an ongoing, county by county overview of the Tri-County Area. This article covers seasonality and local competitive effect on employment growth in Clinton County.

The most recent employment growth data for Clinton County shows that in quarter four of 2025 employment decreased for both Goods Producing and Service Providing industries. Figure 1 illustrates this decline and compares it to what could be expected based on how these industries changed in Michigan and the Nation. What’s intriguing in this picture is that, while Goods Producing industries declined in both the State and Nation, Service Providing industries grew in both cases, while declining quite significantly in Clinton County.

Figure 1: Employment Growth in Clinton County, 2025Q3-Q4

 

Source: Points Consulting using Michigan Capital Region Data Hub

To get more of the whole picture of employment trends in Clinton County, we can look at the quarterly trends over the past 10 years shown in Figure 2. Employment decreases almost every year in both Q4 and Q1 for goods producing and service providing industries and then rises again in Q2 and Q3.

In terms of goods producing industries, both Q1 and Q4 employment numbers have decreased in nine out of the past 10 years, while both Q2 and Q3 employment has increased nine out of 10 years. One explanation for this seasonality is the Construction industry, which is one of the larger industries in Clinton County. This is an industry that tends to need more employees in the warmer months (Q2 and Q3) and less in the colder months (Q1 and Q4).

Service Providing industries, while still showing strong seasonality, don’t experience quite as extreme highs and lows in most years. However, in the past 10 years, the service providing industry has experienced a decrease in employment in both Q1 and Q4, and only one year when Q2 did not increase. This can be attributed to the Leisure & Hospitality and Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation industries, which are a smaller portion of Clinton County’s employment but still notable in the region.

Figure 2: Employment Growth Seasonality in Clinton County, 2015-2025

 

Source: Points Consulting using Michigan Capital Region Data Hub            

Using these observations, it is plausible to predict that in the most recent quarter (Q2 2026) employment has risen again following this trend. Statewide employment data is updated more quickly than county-wide. Looking at how Michigan Goods Producing employment has changed in Q1 and Q2 of 2026, it decreased again 3.5% in Q1 and then increased 3.5% in Q2. This would be consistent with the seasonal pattern Clinton County has followed for the past decade, a Q4 and Q1 dip followed by a Q2 rebound. If the county’s growth continues to track ahead of the state’s swings as it typically does, Q2 2026 Goods Producing employment gains are likely to outpace Michigan’s 3.5% increase, reinforcing that Clinton County’s employment cycle follows a seasonal pattern and the drop in Q4 employment is a reflection of this seasonality rather than a sign of continuing decline.